Divorce risk calculator: What are the chances you’ll split?

Worried about the likelihood your marriage will end?

Concerned about a union for your sister, son, friend, adult child or parent?

Once upon a time, the likelihood of divorce was, at best, based on an educated guess or a gut check. Now, thanks to decades of academic research and population data, it is possible to quantify the likelihood a marriage will end in divorce.

This calculator is for heterosexual relationships because it relies on data based on straight couples.

FWIW, gay men have the lowest divorce rate and gay women have the highest divorce rate of any relationship structure.

In the United States, divorce rates are leveling out, but remain relatively high.

Related divorce articles:

• Remarriage after divorce? What you should know about the divorce rates for second and third marriages
• What to ask for in a divorce settlement
• Single mother statistics this year: Surprising facts about single moms
• Sell your engagement ring after divorce
• Blending families? How to make a blended family work

Sources and methodology

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Divorce statistics: Marriage timing and remarriage

• National Center for Family & Marriage Research. Marriage and Divorce: Age at First Marriage. Bowling Green State University.
• U.S. Census Bureau. Marital Events of Americans: Marriage, Divorce, and Remarriage.
• National Center for Health Statistics. First Marriage and Remarriage Divorce Rates.

Key finding: Younger marriage and remarriage are both associated with higher divorce rates.

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Divorce statistics: Relationship length and cohabitation

• Journal of Marriage and Family. Research on premarital relationship duration and marital outcomes.
• National Survey of Family Growth. Cohabitation and marital stability data.
• Pew Research Center. The Changing Profile of Unmarried Parents and Cohabiting Couples.

Key finding: Very short courtships and some cohabitation patterns correlate with higher divorce risk, though selection effects apply.

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Divorce statistics: Children and family structure

• Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study. Princeton University & Columbia University.
• Brookings Institution. Family structure and stability research.

Key findings:

• Children before marriage correlate with higher divorce risk.
• Parenting stress interacts with financial strain and conflict.

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Divorce statistics: Education and socioeconomic factors

• Institute for Family Studies. Education and divorce risk analyses using American Community Survey data.
• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Educational attainment and marital outcomes.

Key finding: Higher education levels are associated with lower divorce rates.

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Divorce statistics: Financial stress and economic strain

• American Psychological Association. Financial stress and relationship conflict research.
• Journal of Family and Economic Issues. Economic pressure and marital dissolution studies.

Key finding: Financial stress is one of the strongest predictors of marital conflict and divorce.

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Divorce statistics: Substance use

• National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism. Alcohol use disorder and family outcomes.
• Journal of Studies on Alcohol and Drugs. Substance use and divorce risk.

Key finding: Substance abuse significantly increases marital instability.

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Divorce statistics: Intergenerational divorce

• National Center for Family & Marriage Research. Divorce transmission research.
• Journal of Family Issues. Intergenerational marital outcomes.

Key finding: Individuals whose parents divorced have elevated divorce risk.

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Divorce statistics: Religion

• Pew Research Center. Religion and family life surveys.
• National Marriage Project. Religious attendance and marital stability.

Key finding: Regular religious attendance correlates with lower divorce rates.

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Divorce statistics: Unemployment and gender dynamics

• American Sociological Review. Employment shocks and divorce.
• Harvard University. Family economics and marital stability research.

Key finding: Long-term unemployment — particularly male unemployment — is associated with higher divorce risk.

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Divorce statistics: Age differences (including when the woman is older)

• Journal of Marriage and Family. England, P., et al. (2016). Age homogamy, marital satisfaction, and divorce.
• Emory University. Age gap and divorce risk study.

Key findings:

• Larger age gaps correlate with higher divorce rates.
• Divorce risk rises when either spouse is significantly older, with somewhat stronger effects when the wife is older.

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Divorce statistics: Financial integration (shared banking)

• Journal of Consumer Research. Pooling Finances and Relationship Quality.
• Indiana University. Longitudinal study on joint bank accounts and relationship satisfaction.

Key finding: Couples who pool finances tend to report higher relationship quality and financial harmony — factors linked to stability.

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Divorce statistics: Political alignment

• Pew Research Center. Political polarization and marriage surveys.
• American Family Survey. Political differences and relationship conflict.

Key finding: Political mismatch alone is less predictive than whether it generates ongoing conflict.

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Model disclaimer

This divorce liklihood calculator is an educational tool based on population research. It does not predict individual outcomes. Many high-risk couples remain married, and many low-risk couples divorce.

This calculator uses a weighted risk model based on widely documented demographic, economic, and relationship factors associated with marital stability. It does not predict individual outcomes.