Worried about the likelihood your marriage will end?
Concerned about a union for your sister, son, friend, adult child or parent?
Once upon a time, the likelihood of divorce was, at best, based on an educated guess or a gut check. Now, thanks to decades of academic research and population data, it is possible to quantify the likelihood a marriage will end in divorce.
I used ChatGPT to code this calculator. It's intended to be one part helpful and one part entertainment.
This calculator is for straight relationships as it relies on data based on straight couples.
FWIW, gay men have the lowest divorce rate and gay women have the highest divorce rate of any relationship structure.
Divorce Likelihood Calculator
This tool generates a risk score (0–100) based on common risk markers. It is not a prediction.
By entering your email, you agree that your responses may be stored for research and marketing purposes.
Sources & scoring notes
- U.S. divorce trends and demographics: :contentReference[oaicite:3]{index=3} and :contentReference[oaicite:4]{index=4} provide national data on marriage, divorce, and population patterns.
- Age at marriage and divorce risk: Research consistently finds higher divorce risk among those who marry at younger ages (see work by Nicholas Wolfinger, University of Utah).
- Financial stress and conflict: Dew (2012), Journal of Marriage and Family, finds financial conflict is one of the strongest predictors of divorce.
- Unemployment and marital stability: Research shows male unemployment is associated with higher divorce risk (e.g., Killewald; Goñalons-Pons & Gangl, American Sociological Review).
- Remarriage: Second marriages have higher average divorce rates than first marriages, based on demographic research and Census data.
- Religion and marriage stability: :contentReference[oaicite:5]{index=5} finds religious participation and shared beliefs are associated with more stable marriages.
- Political differences and relationships: :contentReference[oaicite:6]{index=6} reports that political disagreement can contribute to relationship strain, particularly when it causes ongoing conflict.
- Age gap / wife older: England et al. (2016), Journal of Marriage and Family.
- Pooling finances / joint accounts: Olson et al. (2023), Journal of Consumer Research.
- Financial conflict & divorce: Dew et al. (2012), Journal of Marriage and Family.
- Political differences and relationship quality: Fangmeier et al. (2020).
- Unemployment and divorce risk: Goñalons-Pons & Gangl (2021), American Sociological Review.
- Income and divorce disparities: Williamson et al. (2023).
- Religion & family patterns: Pew Research Center.
Related divorce articles:
Sources
Calculations factored in data from these sources:
Core divorce trends and demographics
- U.S. Census Bureau. (2024). Marriage and divorce in the United States. https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2024/10/marriage-and-divorce.html
- National Center for Health Statistics. (2023). National marriage and divorce rate trends. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/marriage-divorce.htm
Age at marriage
- Nicholas H. Wolfinger. (2015). The divorce risk of marrying young. Institute for Family Studies.
https://ifstudies.org/blog/the-divorce-risk-of-marrying-young - Wolfinger, N. H. (2021). The better-than-average marriage. University of Chicago Press.
Financial stress and conflict
- Dew, J. (2012). Bank on it: Thrifty couples are the happiest. Journal of Marriage and Family, 74(3), 479–495.
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1741-3737.2012.00962.x - Dew, J., & Xiao, J. J. (2013). Financial declines, financial behaviors, and relationship quality. Journal of Family and Economic Issues, 34, 451–462. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10834-012-9344-3
Unemployment and divorce
- Alexandra Killewald. (2016). Money, work, and marital stability. American Sociological Review, 81(4), 696–719.
https://doi.org/10.1177/0003122416655340 - Goñalons-Pons, P., & Gangl, M. (2021). Marriage and masculinity: Male-breadwinner culture and marital stability. American Sociological Review.
https://doi.org/10.1177/00031224211012442
Remarriage risk
- Bramlett, M. D., & Mosher, W. D. (2002). Cohabitation, marriage, divorce, and remarriage in the United States. National Center for Health Statistics.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/series/sr_23/sr23_022.pdf
Religion and marriage
- Pew Research Center. (2015). America’s changing religious landscape.
https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/ - Wilcox, W. B., & Wolfinger, N. H. (2016). Soul mates: Religion, sex, love, and marriage among African Americans and Latinos. Oxford University Press.
Political differences and relationships
Huber, G. A., & Malhotra, N. (2017). Political homophily in social relationships. Journal of Politics, 79(1), 269–283.
https://doi.org/10.1086/687533
Pew Research Center. (2020). Partisan divides in relationships and family life.
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/10/21/partisan-divides-in-political-values-extend-to-relationships/
Model disclaimer
This divorce liklihood calculator is an educational tool based on population research. It does not predict individual outcomes. Many high-risk couples remain married, and many low-risk couples divorce.
This calculator uses a weighted risk model based on widely documented demographic, economic, and relationship factors associated with marital stability. It does not predict individual outcomes.
