In January 2026, the average Social Security retirement check went up by $56 a month. Almost a third of that raise disappeared before it ever hit a bank account, because the standard Medicare Part B premium jumped by $17.90 that same month, and that premium comes straight out of the check.
That wasn't a one-year fluke. In 2024, Medicare's premium grew faster than the Social Security raise. In 2025, it grew faster again. In 2026, it grew nearly twice as fast. Three years running, retirees on traditional Medicare watched a chunk of their cost-of-living increase get quietly absorbed before they ever saw it.
New projections suggest 2027 could break that streak, and for once, the numbers might tilt back in retirees' favor.
Three years of Medicare taking the bigger bite
The pattern has been consistent enough to set a watch by. In 2024, Social Security's cost-of-living adjustment came in at 3.2%, while the standard Medicare Part B premium rose by 5.9%, nearly double the rate of the benefit increase.
2025 followed the same script. The COLA landed at 2.5%, and Part B climbed another 5.9%. Then 2026 made the gap worse. The COLA slipped to 2.8%, but Part B jumped 9.7%, the second-largest dollar increase in the premium's history.
For someone collecting an average retirement benefit, that meant the Part B increase alone swallowed roughly a third of January's raise, before the deductible went up too. If your deposit felt smaller than the notice promised, you weren't imagining it.
Part of the mismatch comes down to how differently the two numbers are built. The COLA tracks general inflation. The Part B premium is set separately each year based on projected Medicare spending, and regulators have pointed to projected price changes and rising utilization as the main driver behind the recent hikes. Those two forces don't have to move together, and for three years running, they haven't.
What's projected to change in 2027
The newest Medicare projections put the 2027 standard Part B premium at $209.50 a month, up from 2026's $202.90. That's a jump of $6.60, or about 3.3%, a fraction of the increases retirees have absorbed over the past three years.
Meanwhile, current Social Security COLA forecasts sit in the 3.6% to 3.8% range, several times larger than the projected premium increase. Run those numbers against an average retired worker's benefit of roughly $2,081 a month, and a 3.8% raise would add close to $79. Subtract the $6.60 premium increase, and a retiree could keep more than 90% of the raise, a sharp turnaround from 2026, when the premium alone took nearly a third of it.
That's the shift driving all the attention. For the first time since these premium hikes started outpacing benefit increases, the gap could run the other direction.
Why the premium jump looks so much smaller this time
Part of 2026's unusually steep Part B increase came down to a specific and expensive corner of Medicare spending, on advanced wound care products that had ballooned in cost in recent years. Regulators moved to rein in that spending starting in 2026, and the 2027 premium projection reflects a return to something closer to Medicare's typical yearly cost growth.
That doesn't mean Part B premiums are getting cheap. Longer-range estimates put the premium climbing well past $300 a month within a decade, driven by the same forces pushing up health care costs everywhere. But for 2027 specifically, the increase is shaping up to be closer to a normal year than the past two.
Part D isn't standing still either. The projected 2027 prescription drug deductible is set at $700, up from $615, and the out-of-pocket catastrophic threshold is rising to $2,400. Those costs don't come out of a Social Security check directly, but they're worth factoring into any 2027 health care budget.
The COLA estimate is still moving around
Every one of these 2027 numbers is a projection, and the Social Security estimate in particular has swung hard already this year. Early in the summer, one independent forecast spiked as high as 4.7% on a run of hot inflation data. By July, cooling price growth had pulled that same estimate down to 3.7%, while a separate nonpartisan estimate has held closer to 3.8%.
That volatility is normal. The COLA formula only locks in once third-quarter inflation data for July, August, and September is finalized, so anything published before October is an educated guess, some more educated than others. A cooler estimate isn't necessarily bad news for retirees. It usually means prices rose less over the summer, which matters more to a monthly budget than the size of a number on a notice.
Nothing is official until the fall
The following year's COLA is typically announced in mid-October, based on that third-quarter inflation data. Medicare's Part B premium for 2027 won't be official until it's released, usually in mid-November. That timing has held for the past two cycles: the 2026 premium was released on November 14, 2025, and the 2025 premium came out on November 8, 2024.
Until both of those numbers are locked in, treat every figure in this article as a planning estimate, not a guarantee. The projected Part B premium could shift if health care spending trends change between now and November, and the COLA could move again if fall inflation data surprises in either direction. Most beneficiaries get their own updated benefit amount by mail or through their online account in early December, which is the first personalized confirmation of what 2027 actually looks like for a specific check.
What this means for your 2027 budget
Don't rebuild a spending plan around $209.50 or 3.8% just yet. Both numbers can still move before they're finalized. What's reasonable to expect right now is a 2027 raise that holds up noticeably better than the last three years did, with Medicare taking a much smaller slice than it has been.
It's also worth checking where your own premium falls. Higher earners pay well above the standard rate under Medicare's income-related surcharge, so a 2027 adjustment would move a bigger dollar amount for those households than for someone paying the base premium. Once the COLA is confirmed in October and the Part B premium is confirmed in November, that's the moment to run your own numbers and adjust anything that depends on next year's check.
For three years, the raise and the Medicare bill moved in opposite directions. Right now, the projections say 2027 might finally let retirees keep pace.
