Right now, most people on Medicare pay $185 a month for Part B coverage in 2025. That's already a stretch for millions of retirees living on fixed incomes. By 2035, a new congressional analysis projects that per-person annual premiums will roughly double, climbing from $2,440 to around $5,000. That's more than $415 a month, before any other out-of-pocket health costs.
The projection comes from the Joint Economic Committee, a bipartisan group of senators and representatives that advises Congress on financial matters. Their report names a specific culprit: overpayments to private Medicare Advantage plans that, through the way Medicare is financed, end up inflating premiums for every Medicare enrollee, including people who aren't in a Medicare Advantage plan at all.
Understanding what's driving this matters, because if nothing changes, these increases will come directly out of Social Security checks for about 70% of beneficiaries. There are also programs available right now that can reduce or eliminate what you pay, and most people who qualify haven't enrolled.
Table of contents
How Medicare Part B premiums are calculated
Medicare Part B covers outpatient services: doctor visits, lab tests, physical therapy, and drugs administered in a clinical setting. It doesn't come free. Each year, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services sets a standard monthly premium based on projected program costs for the coming year. The standard premium is designed to cover about 25% of expected Part B spending, with the federal government covering the rest through general tax revenue.
The critical word there is “standard.” Because Part B premiums are set nationally based on total projected spending across the entire program, anything that drives up overall Medicare costs drives up premiums for everyone. Higher earners pay more through income-related adjustments, but the base rate is universal. If the government is spending more on Medicare Advantage enrollees, that cost gets baked into what every Part B payer sends in each month.
Most people have premiums automatically deducted from their Social Security payment. A $17.90 increase like the one that took Part B from $185 in 2025 to $202.90 in 2026 is real money taken off the top before the check arrives.
What the congressional report actually found
The Joint Economic Committee's report, released in March 2026, found that Medicare Advantage plans cost the federal government significantly more than covering the same beneficiaries through traditional Medicare. In 2025, that gap came to between $76 billion and $84 billion, or roughly 20% more per enrollee than traditional Medicare would have cost. That excess spending flows into the Part B premium formula and gets distributed across all 50 million Part B enrollees.
The committee calculated that Medicare Advantage overpayments added $212 per person to Part B premiums in 2025, totaling $13.4 billion in excess premiums systemwide. People in traditional Medicare bore about $6 billion of that burden, paying higher premiums for benefits they're not receiving. Since 2016, the committee estimates overpayments have added $82 billion to Part B premiums altogether.
The mechanism behind the overpayments is a billing practice called upcoding. Medicare pays private plans more to cover sicker patients, so insurers have a financial incentive to record more diagnoses for their enrollees, whether or not those diagnoses reflect meaningful treatment needs. The report also flags structural payment disparities and quality bonuses that further push Medicare Advantage costs above what traditional Medicare spends. Health insurers dispute the methodology, arguing the congressional figures are based on flawed data and overstated assumptions. The debate over measurement is real, but the direction of the finding is not seriously contested: Medicare Advantage costs more than traditional Medicare, and that difference affects everyone's premiums.
Why doubling by 2035 is a serious problem
Paying $415 or more a month just for Part B would consume a substantial portion of a typical Social Security check. The average Social Security retirement benefit in 2025 is around $1,976 a month. If premiums reach $415, that's more than 20% of the average benefit gone before rent, food, or prescriptions. For the roughly one-third of retirees who rely on Social Security for 90% or more of their income, it isn't abstract math.
The committee's report also projects that, of the $5,000 projected annual premium in 2035, about $450 would be directly attributable to Medicare Advantage overpayments continuing at the current rate. The remaining increase reflects broader Medicare spending growth. The committee's recommended fix is to align Medicare Advantage payment rates with what traditional Medicare costs for comparable enrollees. Doing that, they say, would save the average beneficiary roughly $2,600 over the next decade and reduce pressure on Social Security benefits for all 50 million Part B enrollees.
What you can do right now if premiums are already a problem
Several programs exist specifically to help lower-income Medicare enrollees pay their premiums. Most of them are underused. The Medicare Savings Programs, administered through state Medicaid agencies, cover Part B premiums for people below certain income thresholds. The Qualified Medicare Beneficiary program covers Part B premiums, deductibles, and cost-sharing for individuals with monthly income up to roughly $1,325. The Specified Low-Income Medicare Beneficiary and Qualifying Individual programs cover Part B premiums at slightly higher income levels. Enrollment in any Medicare Savings Program also qualifies you automatically for Extra Help with Part D drug costs.
Extra Help, also called the Low-Income Subsidy, reduces or eliminates what you pay for prescription drug coverage. People who qualify pay no more than $12.65 for a covered brand-name drug and $5.10 for a generic in 2026, compared to potentially hundreds of dollars out of pocket. To be eligible, income generally needs to fall below 150% of the federal poverty level, which in 2025 is around $1,957 a month for a single person. Applying for Extra Help through the Social Security Administration also triggers an automatic referral to Medicare Savings Programs, so one application can unlock both.
If you're not sure whether you qualify, a free counselor through your state's State Health Insurance Assistance Program can walk through the options with you. Find your local SHIP office at shiphelp.org or call 877-839-2675. These counselors are not selling anything and the service is free.
More benefits advice and news from Wealthy Single Mommy:
Legit single mom hardship grants — This is an updated list of dozens legitimate hardship grants for single mothers — from private charities, businesses and individual donors.
SNAP in 2026: New max benefits, rule changes, and the exact moves to raise your payout — For the 2026 fiscal year, the caps go up in most places, deduction amounts change, and other changes affect how much you receive. Below you’ll find the new numbers in plain English, a quick way to estimate your own benefit, and how to maximize your sum.
7 surprising EBT benefits — If you receive EBT card benefits you can qualify for more than free groceries and other essential items. In this post, you'll find places to go for EBT card holders, including free entrance, discounts and other free stuff.
